As I have previously commented, I don’t think too many people are surprised that Malcolm Turnbull has succeeded Brendan Nelson as the leader of the Liberal Party. There has been no real indication throughout 2008 that Doctor Nelson was eventually going to cut through and threaten Kevin Rudd as a genuine alternative Prime Minister of this country. It is not so much that Brendan Nelson has a divisive personae for the Liberals, but rather just that he failed to threaten the government to a significant enough extent. There was little question that the Rudd Labor Government would secure a second term in office in 2010 if Nelson was left holding the reins.
The interesting thing about Malcolm Turnbull, of course, is that he does have a divisive personae for the Liberal Party. In a political sense he is well to the soft left of the vast majority of the Liberal parliamentary caucus, and one would imagine that he has little time for the agrarian socialism of the National Party. He came to the party late and reportedly only after being denied a position in the Senate for the Labor Party during the 1980’s. In this respect, there are no doubt quite a few members of the Liberal caucus who resent the fact that Turnbull has swept in from the wings to the leadership of the party without having to go through the day-to-day political grind that they had to endure.
It’s worth considering for a moment the results of the leadership spill vote. For starters, Turnbull only was victorious by a margin of 4; if three caucus members had decided to instead plump for Nelson, than Turnbull would have failed to secure the leadership again, and his immediate future prospects would have been reasonably assumed to be in tatters. Ironically, it appears that several conservative members of the caucus may have delivered the vote to Turnbull. Tony Abbott, Alex Hawke, Bronwyn Bishop and Louise Markus all voted for Turnbull; presumably not because they agreed with his political views or indeed particularly like him, but rather because they wanted someone who they thought would be a little more effective in the leadership role.
This is of course a very Howardian way of thinking. The substance of Malcolm Turnbull in a political or policy sense was not what has elevated him to the top job; what has elevated him to the top job is his charisma, eloquence and marketability. If Turnbull does a reasonable enough job of competing with the government and doesn’t try to be too progressive, this won’t be a problem for the Liberals. As it was with the Howard years from about 2000 onwards, if the electorate warm to Turnbull then the Liberal caucus will undoubtedly warm to him, even if they don’t actually agree with him. It’s the poll figures, not the policy, stupid.
Clearly the jury will be out for some time and Turnbull has a lot of convincing to do. While you have traditionally Liberal-affiliated groups like Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy sobbing into their English Breakfast tea, and leading conservative columnists like Miranda Devine still hopelessly longing for an utterly implausible return of the Liberal Party’s great woulda-coulda-shoulda ex-Treasurer, you just know that there will be a few more twists in the tale of this story yet.
Tags: Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull